Friday, May 26, 2017

I picked the 2008 financial market crash.


In response to hearing 'economists didn't pick the crash', I did.

In 2004 I was teaching economics when I saw and recorded this program (below). I would show it to my student's, and spent the next 4 years being very unpopular to my friends and family saying it's going to slide and the global economy will go with it. They would laugh at me. Quite proud of that now. I had, at the time never heard of Austrian Economics, Peter Schiff or Michael Burry.
I argued the crash on the property wealth effect (illusion) and the elasticity of goods in the developed world: if the 'wealth' bubble popped the elastic goods will dry up, and it would be over.

Mortgage Madness (1/3): BBC2 - 29/10/2003  

There is not a moment I don't think about the real slide coming. My current students don't know about 2008 where I live in Sweden, it was paved over; so I have to teach it as a kind of history lesson. And the current property market is rocketing  - everywhere! fuelled on cheap money.
And they are laughing at me again. Cause it's going to slide.

My position on who is the cause; I say everybody, not just the banks were (are) the cause. People took (take) those loans, they cheated themselves and the system, and it came back on them. This is a systematic problem at both ends.

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

That Humans were in America 130 thousand years ago fits.

Humans Lived in North America 130,000 Years Ago, Study Claims.

To me it's no problem they were there; their (Denisovan) DNA is in the 'first' Americans, as it is with the early people  (mostly the melanicians)  east of a line of Indonesia.

It fits with the Toba bottle neck catastrophe theory.

The Toba eruption 75k y.a. cleared humans to the west, and a new 'Eve' migration 'out of Africa' followed there after.  
 
 

Friday, May 6, 2016

Lorenz Curve of the Universe's Elements

Update May 2017
I have published a working paper on the Lorenz curve being a fractal property at academia.edu.

Abstract
Global income has increased exponentially over the last two hundred years; while, and at the same time respective Gini coefficients have also increased: this investigation tested whether this pattern is a property of the mathematical geometry termed a fractal attractor. The Koch Snowflake fractal was selected and inverted to best model economic production and growth: all triangle area sizes in the fractal grew with iteration-time from an arbitrary size – growing the total set. Area of triangle the ‘bits’ represented wealth. Kinematic analysis – velocity and acceleration – was undertaken, and it was noted growing triangles propagate in a sinusoidal spiral. Using Lorenz curve and Gini methods, bit size distribution – for each iteration-time – was graphed. The curves produced matched the regular Lorenz curve shape and expanded out to the right with fractal growth – increasing the corresponding Gini coefficients: contradicting Kuznets cycles. The ‘gap’ between iteration triangle sizes (wealth) was found to accelerate apart, just as it is conjectured to do so in reality. It was concluded the wealth (and income) Lorenz distribution – along with acceleration properties – is an aspect of the fractal. Form and change of the Lorenz curve are inextricably linked to the growth and development of a fractal attractor; and from this – given real economic data – it can be deduced an economy – whether cultural or not – behaves as a fractal and can be explained as a fractal. Questions of the discrete and wave properties and the accelerated expansion – similar to that of trees and the conjectured growth of universe at large – of the fractal growth, were discussed.
May 5th 2016
What a time, what a week, what a day – this morning I had the ‘Eureka’ of my life. For years now I’ve had my fractal model matching the evolution of the universe, but with what I discovered this morning, I now have it also matching the evolution of the elements and the periodic table. Everything fits – inextricably – through the geometry of a fractal. If you don't mind, I'm going to share, for the record, how this came about – before I get my head down writing it up. Madness!
Last week I received my paper back from an economics journal on the Lorenz Curve (income and wealth distribution) and it being a universal aspect of the fractal. (see my earlier entries: (1),(2), and (3)
They had questions for me relating to how I get growth, and accelerating growth out of this geometry - I hadn’t included this in my methods ? I replied to them saying: the Lorenz distribution is one aspect of the fractal, and that with all its aspects together (I have discovered) the fractal demonstrates (at least for economists) production, consumption and equilibrium (and other stuff). Can I write everything up in one paper for you with all the aspects? Or?
Anyway, at the same time as all this, I’ve been listening to a podcast (about 10 times actually) on (Rutherford and) Chadwick’s Neutron (prediction and) discovery, and heard the scientists talking on how the atom cannot get larger than Uranium before becoming unstable; and that the lighter elements Hydrogen (H) and Helium (He) 'want' to get larger, and that iron is the ‘sweet spot’. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07...
On about Tuesday I started to think fractal (again). Do the elements of the universe form a Lorenz curve? If they do, this is important. I searched the numbers, and drew a conclusion in quick time. Damn! Yes they do! Of course they do! Hydrogen constitutes 75% of the elements, and Helium some 23% - the rest are small fry compared. They are the ‘one the percent’ – they hold the ‘wealth’ of the elements not dissimilar to any other system. And then I thought about the other aspects of the fractal: equilibrium, production cost… equilibrium ..cost.. equilibrium...?? and then it came to me: Iron is the equilibrium - the ‘sweet spot’! And the lighter elements before iron are out of equilibrium, and so too are the heavier unstable one’s larger than it. This all conforms to my fractal model, and so I then thought about the time involved – because the first bits ( the H and He), of a fractal are the largest and their 'wealth' accelerates with time - think of the trunk of a tree as it grows, they actually do accelerate. Again – a fit. H and He were 'created', one after the other, in the first 1 or 2 seconds of the ‘big bang’. The other small fry element (and us) came later – and the sub-atomic particles earlier.
Now I’m going to try again, and get someone’s (a physicists) attention; because I really don’t want to explain this to an economist.
May 6th 2016
I have created a Lorenz Curve of the (118) known elements in the universe by their abundance. Reference: Abundance in the Universe of the elements
I have been watching the documentary BBC Atom: The Key to the Cosmos for inspiration. Below is an image of Jim Al-Khalili showing iron Fe the most stable and of 'modest' abundance of the elements. And below that the periodic table showing how and when elements were formed. The older the more abundant.




Friday, October 30, 2015

Improved Fractal Lorenz Curve



Four years ago I conducted a 'loose' experiment on a Christmas tree to test the weight distribution of branches for Lorenz curve wealth distribution similarities in an economy. This week I finished the Figure 3 chart (below) after modelling the Koch Snowflake fractal for (Lorenz) area distribution. Took me hours. 
I found the area distribution not only follows what we observe with wealth distribution, but expands as the fractal grows (or develops) with time (Table 1). I also found different area groups (triangle sizes) grow with time (from an arbitrary size), and accelerate apart from each other with time. This is a geometry and can be observed in any fractal structure. I have updated my post at academia.edu
Abstract:

Global income has increased exponentially over the last two hundred years; while, and at the same time respective Gini coefficients have also increased: this investigation tested whether this pattern is a property of the mathematical geometry termed a fractal attractor. The Koch Snowflake fractal was selected and inverted to best model economic production and growth: all triangle area sizes in the fractal grew with iteration-time from an arbitrary size – growing the total set. Area of triangle the ‘bits’ represented wealth. Kinematic analysis – velocity and acceleration – was undertaken, and it was noted growing triangles propagate in a sinusoidal spiral. Using Lorenz curve and Gini methods, bit size distribution – for each iteration-time – was graphed. The curves produced matched the regular Lorenz curve shape and expanded out to the right with fractal growth – increasing the corresponding Gini coefficients: contradicting Kuznets cycles. The ‘gap’ between iteration triangle sizes (wealth) was found to accelerate apart, just as it is conjectured to do so in reality. It was concluded the wealth (and income) Lorenz distribution – along with acceleration properties – is an aspect of the fractal. Form and change of the Lorenz curve are inextricably linked to the growth and development of a fractal attractor; and from this – given real economic data – it can be deduced an economy – whether cultural or not – behaves as a fractal and can be explained as a fractal. Questions of the discrete and wave properties and the accelerated expansion – similar to that of trees and the conjectured growth of universe at large – of the fractal growth, were discussed.













Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Problem in Thin Ice documentary


In the documentary Thin Ice I have identified a mistake that I would like to reveal to you. This mistake, if correct, is so large as to discredit not only the documentary but also the science. 

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Fractspansion Prediction

I was thinking the other night, after watching a lecture on the distribution of galaxies in the observable universe, if my fractspansion model is correct then there should be a (regular) lateral shift in galaxies by distance time and not just Hubble recession. It should also be increasing with distance-time as with Hubble's Law.



Thursday, June 4, 2015

Best Black Swan event - black swans are native to New Zealand too

In a conversation yesterday, I was asked whether I has read the book Black Swans by Nassim Nicholas Taleb? Yeah, I replied, and then said: ‘You know, the best Black Swan example to me (probably not in Taleb's book if I recall) is that Black Swans once lived in New Zealand too (and its islands 'Chaptam'), and not only Australia as commonly thought. They went extinct (by the Maori), were reintroduced, but have been found, in recent times, to have flown there on their own. They also have similar genetics.  That's the Black Swan of Black Swans I say.

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/wetland-birds/page-4