Friday, May 26, 2017

I picked the 2008 financial market crash.


In response to hearing 'economists didn't pick the crash', I did.

In 2004 I was teaching economics when I saw and recorded this program (below). I would show it to my student's, and spent the next 4 years being very unpopular to my friends and family saying it's going to slide and the global economy will go with it. They would laugh at me. Quite proud of that now. I had, at the time never heard of Austrian Economics, Peter Schiff or Michael Burry.
I argued the crash on the property wealth effect (illusion) and the elasticity of goods in the developed world: if the 'wealth' bubble popped the elastic goods will dry up, and it would be over.

Mortgage Madness (1/3): BBC2 - 29/10/2003  

There is not a moment I don't think about the real slide coming. My current students don't know about 2008 where I live in Sweden, it was paved over; so I have to teach it as a kind of history lesson. And the current property market is rocketing  - everywhere! fuelled on cheap money.
And they are laughing at me again. Cause it's going to slide.

My position on who is the cause; I say everybody, not just the banks were (are) the cause. People took (take) those loans, they cheated themselves and the system, and it came back on them. This is a systematic problem at both ends.

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